Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20689062645621dc29dc86cb24cd4d5be79a0d08a668507496ace1ac64b15abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 11c | 576.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 64c | 525.14$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.85 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 450.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 446.63$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.98 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 255.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 9c | 218.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 31c | 191.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 151.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 145.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 143.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 41c | 119.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 38c | 116.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 23c | 112.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 22c | 112.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 45c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 46c | 109.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 37c | 100.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 91.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 87.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 14c | 73.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 70.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 53c | 58.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked No | 79c | 52.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 73c | 49.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 46c | 49.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 67c | 47.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 40.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 49c | 30.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 45c | 29.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 53c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed Yes | 64c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…7735backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.