Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b7216f4ad6fc95d354d5c088cee0928ca151136b4bbc854da77b2e3fd6e0e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,112$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.33 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 13c | 1,104$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 28c | 800.38$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 77c | 609.99$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.49 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 46c | 565.44$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 76c | 493.57$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 438.23$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 75c | 424.34$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.12 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 21c | 368.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 44c | 349.75$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 22c | 316.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.56 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 38c | 272.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 250.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 47c | 207.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.81 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 184.19$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 162$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 37c | 156.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 22c | 154.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked No | 65c | 153.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 136.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 128$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 23c | 120.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 67c | 111.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 90.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 87.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 64c | 78.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 74.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 54c | 65.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 60.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 78c | 52.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 22c | 50.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 47.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 46c | 40.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 29.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 27.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2a…12a1backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 23.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 64c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…73e0backed Yes | 69c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…699abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.