Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ebdf89638a1ef5543170962dcac9fa3fc8564b2c12ff4ced72c86999742c2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 3c | 871.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 757.64$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 706.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 622.51$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 541.75$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 80c | 370.75$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 342.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 51c | 337.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.47 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 20c | 323.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…bea2backed Yes | 12c | 314.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 307.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.62 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 297.54$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.68 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 77c | 291.73$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.63 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 278.36$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 259.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 238.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 216.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 214$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 211.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 35c | 205.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 176.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 28c | 173.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 161$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 160.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…6361backed Yes | 60c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 148.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 135.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 131.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 17c | 125.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 59c | 124.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 104.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 49c | 93.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 89.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 26c | 87.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 83.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 76c | 70.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…68ccbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 68.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 65.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 57.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 28c | 57.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 53.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 71c | 52.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 46c | 50.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…9c26backed Yes | 24c | 50.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 30c | 50.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 27c | 47.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 24c | 43.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d7…7689backed Yes | 54c | 35.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 47c | 34.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 32c | 31.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 45c | 31.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 69c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed Yes | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 78c | 18.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 72c | 14.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.