Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876093dbe84fc6b387e23983213c82bd30820de336cb94e8fd1a3e5ee310e2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 1,721$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 65c | 1,095$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.55 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 1,084$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 813.35$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 64c | 697.82$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.62 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 71c | 564.28$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.41 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 529.84$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 60c | 469.6$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 452.32$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 63c | 414.38$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.95 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 75c | 357.13$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.22 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 79c | 326.21$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.85 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 323.36$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 305.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 299.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.55 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 25c | 269.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.05 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 80c | 258.73$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 240.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 216.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 190.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 67c | 179.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 23c | 170.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 169.68$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 162.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 149.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 34c | 148.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 147.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 47c | 144.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 134.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 123.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 122.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 121.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 114$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 109.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 16c | 103$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 80c | 100.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 100.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 23c | 97.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 55c | 97.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 95.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 94.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 55c | 90.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 33c | 88.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 32c | 87.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 86.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 85.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 21c | 85.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…df7cbacked Yes | 25c | 84.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 18c | 83.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 36c | 82.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 15c | 81.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 70c | 79.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 77.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 38c | 76.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 40c | 70.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 24c | 69.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 23c | 64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 62.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 62c | 58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…9c26backed Yes | 46c | 57.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 52.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 23c | 51.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 80c | 50.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 28c | 48.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 28c | 47.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 38c | 46.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 31c | 45.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 54c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 28c | 37.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 73c | 36.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…68fcbacked Yes | 60c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 65c | 27.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 63c | 25.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…7968backed Yes | 74c | 24.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 23.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 60c | 22.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…2aafbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.