Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9a8671ca40c60a74c1bb8b7e2c6599607d0e5c753fe3407f7f1f93215974cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 2,784$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 961.14$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 722.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 69c | 329.2$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 20c | 324.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.99 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 294.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 263.35$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 257.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 39c | 243.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.39 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 199.15$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 194.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 191.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 190$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 177.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 78c | 173.15$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 171$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 16c | 159.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.87 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 70c | 156$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 135.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 133.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 33c | 132.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 125.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 23c | 104.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 102$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 95.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 92.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Yes | 30c | 88.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 87.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 78.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 76c | 78.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 31c | 74.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 23c | 72.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 79c | 70.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 68.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 49c | 66.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 21c | 66.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 63.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 67c | 59.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 21c | 51.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 51.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 65c | 43.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 43.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 42.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 32.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 67c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 27.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 26.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 77c | 24.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 66c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed No | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 66c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 18.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 78c | 15.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 69c | 14.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.