Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085ce2c34b48425f38237ebcb967298719ecf68165688074222dfd7bb88cc74a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 1,652$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.66 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 361.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 5c | 338.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 323.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 223$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 220.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 192$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 35c | 185$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 124.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 68c | 117.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 100.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 88.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 38c | 74.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 69.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 67.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 60.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…c077backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 49.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 44.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 43.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 42.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 64c | 37.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 64c | 34.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 67c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 28.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.