Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4c10549ff66b20fc5aa8a534a532c6e0dea01fa2c033b0f3114946fa31507a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 2,919$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.09 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,756$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 21c | 1,121$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.63 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 5c | 780.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 776.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 483.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 72c | 347.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 335$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 334$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 12c | 213.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 190.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 73c | 188.71$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 182.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 7c | 147.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 145$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 131.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 28c | 128.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 119.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 116.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 113.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 99.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 90.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 21c | 69.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…3f05backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 31c | 58.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 52.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 48.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 28c | 44.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 40.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 37.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 36.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 26.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 72c | 23.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 73c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.