Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x146ea9aa03bd85063fad8e4f3f70f5aae27755e92fc0708545ee2cce60a70155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,708$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 917.36$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 850.07$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 768.54$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 741.5$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 685.04$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.67 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 600.89$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 493.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 15c | 479.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 457.61$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 66c | 400.63$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 39c | 395.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.66 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 381.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 78c | 357$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 345$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 32c | 302.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 74c | 300.31$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 281.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 32c | 275.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 251.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 46c | 237.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 217.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 201.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 192.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 54c | 180.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 79c | 179.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 27c | 171$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 7c | 162.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 158.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 38c | 158.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 147.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 145.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 61c | 139.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 132.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 125.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 125$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 34c | 113.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 41c | 110.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 55c | 103.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 102$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 41c | 100.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…701abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 70c | 89.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 63c | 89.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 88.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 34c | 83.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 78.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 33c | 76.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 26c | 74.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 36c | 70.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 62.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 61.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 65c | 61.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 59.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 58.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 30c | 56.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 75c | 56.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 56.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 32c | 52.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 52.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 23c | 51.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 50.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 50.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 49.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 37c | 48.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 25c | 46.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 42.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 48c | 36.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 72c | 36.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 34.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 68c | 32.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 77c | 28.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 25.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 24.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 20.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 66c | 20.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.