Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb3d23aaae472d4a864c01449ca0934e6b57d387a26c36b4a1ea6c7ab691552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 0c | 19,445$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,547$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 31c | 907.47$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.11 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 585.06$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 28c | 545.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 461.67$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 436.2$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 344.42$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 75c | 340.27$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…faeebacked Yes | 24c | 302.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 245$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 235.8$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 31c | 220.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 207$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 195.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 192.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 185$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 25c | 160.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 148.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 23c | 145.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 144.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 143.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 125$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 120.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 22c | 118.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 29c | 115.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 29c | 110.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 98.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 88.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 27c | 83.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 80.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 77.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 71.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…701abacked No | 74c | 70.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 70.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 31c | 63.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 60.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 26c | 59.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 67c | 56.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 55.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 29c | 54.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 71c | 52.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 52.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 73c | 51.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…3f05backed No | 78c | 45.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 31c | 40.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 77c | 40.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 38.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 38.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 37.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked No | 70c | 37.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 78c | 37.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 36.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 31c | 36.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 33.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 67c | 31.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 28.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 22.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 77c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 71c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.