TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,075 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes0c19,445$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.172,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c1,547$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.84,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes31c907.47$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.1117536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes23c585.06$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.171,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes28c545.31$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2423429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No74c461.67$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.922,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No77c436.2$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.411,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c344.42$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.774,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No75c340.27$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0748523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3a…faeebacked Yes24c302.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c245$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.833,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No77c235.8$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.953,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes31c220.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7454853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c207$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.172,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes6c195.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes24c192.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0765625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c185$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.193,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes25c160.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c148.87$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.876,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes23c145.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.095736.8%21 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No78c144.09$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4181558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c143.08$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes29c125$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c120.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes22c118.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0812941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No78c116$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.094,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes29c115.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8729948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d44…997dbacked Yes29c110.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.643237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c108$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.884,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes26c104$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.243,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3156…8f96backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268620.9%18 W · 68 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c98.36$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.154,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No74c88.1$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes26c85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.812339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaebb…9922backed Yes27c83.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.432250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No75c80.77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1316566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes31c77.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.831,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No74c71.39$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.233,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcc4…701abacked No74c70.72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c70.05$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes31c63.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.623040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No74c60.6$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.645675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes26c59.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.391838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No67c56.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.523666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes26c55.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.372,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes29c54.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8351156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd73…3cc0backed No71c52.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.366968.1%47 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c52.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.133,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No73c51.68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.820838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes26c51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.282817.9%5 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-69%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.314,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2513636%49 W · 87 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1334846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd9…3f05backed No78c45.52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No71c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.762,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes31c40.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No77c40.21$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.355855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No70c38.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.291,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c38.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.764,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No72c37.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.581,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x250e…f17bbacked No70c37.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.181060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No78c37.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.221472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c36.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.971,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2faa…26c2backed Yes31c36.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes31c33.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3330136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x322c…8fe9backed No67c31.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.274870.8%34 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.849675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No73c28.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.815369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c28.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No77c25.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.821,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7515961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No70c22.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6828360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No76c22.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.411,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No73c20.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4425877.5%200 W · 58 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.226067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.239768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.292761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No77c19.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4156322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No67c17.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9628068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No67c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6176059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1341760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No71c14.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2120056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.