Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd76d85344e441348b8f003e7a6a970ad6069cae9f064f9aa8a6b3c633c570a97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 1,136$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 949.5$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.09 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 924.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 20c | 726.21$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 617.73$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 525.91$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 25c | 506.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 23c | 456.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 405.13$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 335$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 318.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 9c | 308.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 298.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 9c | 277$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 273.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 240.02$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 74c | 229.88$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 222.69$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 21c | 202.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 22c | 183.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed Yes | 7c | 182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 18c | 162.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 157.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 154.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 141.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 10c | 132.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 128$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d1…65b4backed Yes | 19c | 122.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 21c | 112.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 100.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3339…1db6backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked Yes | 17c | 89.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 24c | 87.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 67.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 62.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 60.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 59.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 57.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 69c | 54.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 39.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 74c | 37.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 34.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 76c | 30.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 25.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.