Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6ad7c5f9f412579d143266d21ff9e76ca229b02105ff0b6d68bef699921ca1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3019…631ebacked Yes | 23c | 437.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 74c | 354.54$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 314.37$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 220.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 29c | 210.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 21c | 205.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 22c | 204.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 154.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 79c | 126.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 118.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 117.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 112.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 112.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 95.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 77c | 94.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8f…f96abacked Yes | 21c | 93.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 21c | 89.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 84.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 22c | 78.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 26c | 74.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 29c | 73.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 72.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…d5a2backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 59.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 56.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 56.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 52.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 31c | 50.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 78c | 48.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 32c | 46.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 45.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 43.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…a1bdbacked Yes | 28c | 41.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 36.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 74c | 35.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 33.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 79c | 31.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 79c | 30.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 30.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 26.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…bc4fbacked No | 78c | 26.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 76c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 13.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.