Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de303e3af06931b98a7c1567b644c36411716af84c787d2defbd05334045efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 76c | 736.58$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.88 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 19c | 629.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 28c | 508.58$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 492.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3019…631ebacked Yes | 25c | 399.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 36c | 370.36$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 23c | 313.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 307.69$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 264.54$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 260.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 256.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 158.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 28c | 156.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae4…7084backed Yes | 37c | 135.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 131.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 68c | 131.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…d5a2backed Yes | 16c | 116.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 111.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 87.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 28c | 86.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 62c | 81.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 79.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 24c | 74.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 72.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 71.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…a1bdbacked Yes | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 23c | 58.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 21c | 57.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 65c | 57.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 50c | 57.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 50.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 24c | 49.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 48.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 45.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…d0eabacked No | 74c | 37.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 29.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 55c | 27.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 23.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 68c | 23.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4937…fbd0backed No | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 75c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.