Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65d84daaf6fd3f3e5a6cf45b9ffabb1a89445e6137d825686d36cc6612a0702f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 2c | 623.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 468.4$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3019…631ebacked Yes | 21c | 280.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 254.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 9c | 241.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 159.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked No | 75c | 145.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 21c | 135.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 132.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 21c | 120.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 106.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 105.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 104.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 27c | 103.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 64c | 102.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 83.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 46c | 82.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 17c | 81.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 76.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 67c | 65.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 79c | 63.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 59.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 30c | 52.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 50.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 76c | 49.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 48.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 22c | 48.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 45.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 79c | 45.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…28cabacked Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 41.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 38.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 45c | 32.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 27.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 52c | 24.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 80c | 24.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 23.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0329backed Yes | 69c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 66c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…6af8backed Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.