Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91e1c43c767fd722ef79e9ec012d13d30b9c784da0d5587ea723e92727d10425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 3c | 8,839$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.66 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,143$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 1,123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 980.7$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 24c | 909.9$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed Yes | 5c | 578.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 54c | 552.39$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…73e0backed Yes | 12c | 546.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0817backed No | 75c | 524.47$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 489.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 24c | 396.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 10c | 383.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 51c | 373.9$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.16 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 337.52$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 70c | 304.52$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed No | 80c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 287.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…309ebacked No | 58c | 253.41$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 233.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 206$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 10c | 183.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 182.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 25c | 181.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 173.58$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 42c | 168.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 48c | 151.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 12c | 146.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed No | 74c | 141.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 141.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 43c | 128.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 77c | 116.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 25c | 114.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 55c | 113.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 106.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 102.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 100.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 47c | 88.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 23c | 87.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 77c | 81.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 21c | 77.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 19c | 77.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 72.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 14c | 72.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…bb91backed No | 76c | 70.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed No | 65c | 68.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed No | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 24c | 62.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 79c | 61.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 61.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 28c | 60.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 27c | 55.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 39c | 53.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 77c | 50.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked No | 46c | 47.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 42c | 37.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 35.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 43c | 34.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2a…12a1backed No | 60c | 33.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 57c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 61c | 29.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 29.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 71c | 28.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 70c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…812ebacked No | 77c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 70c | 18.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…ca54backed No | 75c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked No | 75c | 16.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 63c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 70c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.