Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd171566872faa88b425c80f889dbe71a0959e30f167a92a0970247e7adf37317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 529.89$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 515.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 419.24$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 298$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.22 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 255.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 205.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 190.73$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 177.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 162.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 150.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 132.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 132.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 75c | 128.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 113.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 111.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 110.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 74c | 109.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 104.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 102.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 97.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 96.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 86.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 84.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 20c | 75.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 73.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 66c | 72.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 72.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 67.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 57.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 52.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…41c6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…7c01backed Yes | 47c | 45.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 38c | 35.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 33.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 31.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 76c | 22.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 21.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 18.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 16.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 79c | 15.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.