Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x255e455850d74b9095652f8bbc9c7db69e95987d0e53c8afaffdca3c30c118d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 805.23$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 296$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 254.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 45c | 221.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 190.73$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 179.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 176.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 147.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 147.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 137.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 51c | 135.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 42c | 132.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 43c | 110.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 95.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 90.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 88.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 70.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 65.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 48c | 49.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 57c | 30.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 30.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 25.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 60c | 21.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.