TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c1,032$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.361,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes56c866.18$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.0410342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes32c570.36$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9789544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c405$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.358,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes47c396.83$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.491,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No60c366.45$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.184,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes39c344.22$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5863538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x341b…b929backed Yes38c317.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes63c291.57$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0716733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed No58c268.89$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.419757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No43c243.75$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.012,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c229.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No71c226.15$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No55c203.75$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.722,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No52c182.05$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.034,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes51c177.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No50c172.28$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c156.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9411163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c144.82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.548,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes45c130.52$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No47c130$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.24,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes43c129$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4772042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes42c128.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.654,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No53c128.49$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.711,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes43c124.51$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No57c124.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8439956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes44c120.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.13,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No47c116.72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.012,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes45c107.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2670148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No43c102.68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1a…2987backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5715529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed Yes34c89.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c81.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.683,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.31,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No63c73.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1266944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No52c72.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.585,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes44c68.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No59c66.32$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.883,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes69c62.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9835264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.344,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes36c57.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes44c56.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4852446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No41c53.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…3017backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1915258.6%89 W · 63 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes58c48.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No62c45.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.531,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c45.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.333,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes44c45.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No38c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.922,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No61c44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.162,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.536,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.635137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.57,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes66c36.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.235,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c8…4ccabacked No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.363240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2faa…26c2backed Yes40c31.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.972,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No42c25.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.24,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No57c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.321,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No64c23.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.372,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…41c6backed Yes66c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No53c20.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.854057.5%23 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1028…1316backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.87852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4606…f3cebacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.12356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…df40backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.821950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.252758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5543563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.826067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.880962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1576059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.816946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.815545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.818254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.815345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No65c17.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0728360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No64c16.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.