Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95bbe65e446ee979e49965e73d1aa76426651dc3b0f6cf1c7248599852ed5193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 2,021$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 19c | 1,466$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.65 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,408$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 917.22$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 18c | 667.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.93 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 553.54$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.23 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 332.94$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 320.48$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 41c | 319.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.19 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 286.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 76c | 285.33$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…cd6cbacked No | 4c | 250.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 33c | 243.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.48 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 209.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 209$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 187.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 180.56$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 57c | 174.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 32c | 160.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 44c | 159.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 157.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 48c | 155.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 153.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 150.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 45c | 147.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 144.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 127$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 20c | 126.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 123.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 79c | 112.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 19c | 103.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f1…2c5dbacked No | 17c | 102.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 94.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 94.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 23c | 92.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 87.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 83.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 27c | 81.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 24c | 75.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 50c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 72.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 57c | 70.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 70.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 44c | 67.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 66.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 46c | 64.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 40c | 63.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 43c | 59.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 19c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 53.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…7c01backed No | 43c | 47.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 43c | 46.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 45c | 38.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 79c | 30.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 30.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 74c | 28.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 26.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 25.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 25.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 23.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 64c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 77c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…c922backed No | 78c | 15.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked No | 78c | 12.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 12.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.