TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No60c4,600$2,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.8631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes39c2,309$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.2618945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c2,004$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4155…c18fbacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No68c1,413$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.892,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes32c1,127$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.8672042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No66c1,044$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.974,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No49c446.59$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.872,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No68c419.87$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6623429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes20c416.4$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.288537.6%32 W · 53 L+15.1wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+161.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5c11…a98dbacked Yes34c401.21$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No69c360$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.61,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes33c356.65$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.391,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No71c353.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.612466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes32c321.19$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.454,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes29c298.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5919137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes36c291.66$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5353525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c275$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.15,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No76c271$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.218041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No76c266$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.842,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes34c257.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.452,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes48c239.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes71c216.88$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.441,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes37c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes31c179.93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.182,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No31c168.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.374,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes32c149.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3819042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c135.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.124,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ab…6412backed Yes39c132.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.72528%7 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes29c125.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes41c123$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.431,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed Yes38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.65851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes35c120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4239768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No61c110.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.039,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes28c105.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6215529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c102$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes64c100.48$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5757044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3116733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.751,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2935344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3415128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No34c98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes34c93.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes30c91.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.634,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes35c86.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c83.85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.033,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No73c81.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0523666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes32c81.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.356835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes39c74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8647738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No39c73.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.222,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No41c73.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.241,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No32c66.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked Yes55c63.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.054656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes29c63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2725935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes33c60.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes38c58.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.082,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No71c56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.443,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No72c53.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.971,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.114,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1516532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4934…6d71backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155657.1%32 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.557156.3%40 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked No68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes51c48.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4919039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes32c48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No73c45.79$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4242366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.952,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebc…35c2backed No69c43.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…28c5backed Yes33c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.862020%4 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No35c41.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0886847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes38c39.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9217020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd03b…5123backed Yes32c37.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.971030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes36c36.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes55c36.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes34c35.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1276936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.911163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd333…53f9backed Yes52c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.738934.8%31 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No48c31.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4471057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94de…e3cabacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105042%21 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c6b…268abacked Yes70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes72c29.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.593246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes64c29.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1938454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c29.41$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.862,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes40c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9921338%81 W · 132 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c27.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.896,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.