Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a3e862e3bc8be9e13b176deddbfa868e15a9f1b471fef59c6d54e1d0b25c70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 294.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 75c | 242.25$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 8c | 230.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 206.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 168.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 12c | 152.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 14c | 144.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 14c | 143.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 75c | 139.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 21c | 138.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 13c | 128.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 125.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 24c | 107.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 11c | 97.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 96.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 94.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 15c | 93.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…2851backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 77c | 85.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 84.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 83.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 18c | 83.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…e6c9backed Yes | 19c | 80.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 15c | 77.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 71.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 22c | 67.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 77c | 29.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 26.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C or higher on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.