TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No67c4,755$3,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,163.7631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes33c3,037$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.592,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c1,889$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.9710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c1,048$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.498,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed No70c704.37$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.759238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No68c460.41$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.92,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c423.97$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.983,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Yes32c388.28$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.575332.1%17 W · 36 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes64c379.79$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked No68c369.4$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8516532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No76c343.07$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26012466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c315$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.743,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes35c302.68$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.1453525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes27c298.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.720339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No72c214.53$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4423666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes24c207.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4539543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13226256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c186$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.654,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No75c179.04$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.713,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c178.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.489,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes25c170$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.981,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes50c159$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c147.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.552,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes32c147.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.172,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No57c139.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.893,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c128$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.824,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes34c117.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2354735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c116.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed Yes23c113.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.536527.7%18 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+68.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes37c110$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.318041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6643959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes37c96.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No73c94.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No73c91.26$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.762,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes30c90$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes33c87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6219039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes24c80.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.816835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes33c75.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5614222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes35c75.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.071,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No70c73.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.32,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No56c72.84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6817020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes39c72.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6737144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes26c70$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.057549.3%37 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes38c63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0625935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No64c62.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes28c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5330333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes30c51.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes25c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb286…aac7backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348726.4%23 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.251,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.529351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No79c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.377156.3%40 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…6d71backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355657.1%32 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e34…2851backed Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c49.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No42c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.974,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c44.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes40c42.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7224531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes25c41.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.056243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No61c40.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.628762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed Yes34c39.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2327552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes28c39.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.296619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes31c38.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.968348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No51c37.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.182,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes29c36.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c35.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.054,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes29c34.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4314725.2%37 W · 110 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked No77c33.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked No74c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3244945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f7…c14bbacked No76c33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0810973.4%80 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c32.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.671,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes70c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2966758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.92339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.154,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes62c28.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c27.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.676,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes37c27.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1770148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f7…ad30backed No75c26.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-2.3wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.369,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c23.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No64c23.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9962275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No61c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0331866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No73c23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.793,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed No76c22.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.083145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9468…c84fbacked No74c22.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.331283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x020c…f6c9backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+42.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3edf…e863backed No78c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.824050%20 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c18.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.311,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No60c18.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3154253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed No76c17.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.547159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2f…2de4backed No73c14.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.954856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.