Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf33aa04bc2e88cef30bd5c5da12e54955dcf64795c147846a6f0d4dfcaed60f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 22c | 1,841$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.09 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 755.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 566.23$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 22c | 327.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 73c | 296.48$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 17c | 285.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 14c | 281.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 246.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 232.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 212.31$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 197.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 190$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 176.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 173.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 159$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 156.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 155.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 144.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 141.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 134.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 123.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 116.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 115.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 113.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 113$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 11c | 110.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 106.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 19c | 97.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 12c | 87.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 83.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 77.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 68.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 67.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 67.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 27c | 54.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 54.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 51.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 25c | 49.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 77c | 47.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 34c | 36.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 73c | 36.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 36.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 69c | 28.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 71c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.