TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,309 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes33c688.41$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.411,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No25c619.52$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.234,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c544.39$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.882,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes43c463.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.757159.2%42 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c420.55$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.0410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No30c319.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.612,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes45c319.02$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0732147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No11c273.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No62c269.54$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1712466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No12c225$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes50c222.16$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4414725.2%37 W · 110 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No69c208.83$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.181,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c206.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.476,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No30c204.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.533,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c195.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.394,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c194.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No58c188.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c186.6$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.614,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No58c173.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.924,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb07…5b0fbacked No41c157.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8712060%72 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes47c156.22$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes77c154.32$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.151,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No64c148.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e80…22b8backed Yes33c145.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0813527.4%37 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c145.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.919,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c124.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.114,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c124.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.013,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No59c113.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes64c112.51$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5111883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x2613…3dccbacked Yes74c112.49$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.251877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No48c111.34$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.931,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes36c107.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7615040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1db…62afbacked No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c98.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.238,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes38c94.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.811927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No57c90$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.31,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No66c85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.116453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No60c80.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes51c80.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5815630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No56c80$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.836150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c80$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.085,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No56c78.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8712437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No56c78.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8720347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.264,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes29c75.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.42623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d2…4142backed No56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.24940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.373,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes35c67.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.144228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes35c65.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.681250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c64.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.229443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No55c58.48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.162,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No51c58.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c56.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.943,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes40c55.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5316656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes40c55.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3915556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No45c55.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5344366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4917…8bbebacked Yes46c53.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.961030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…6d71backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385657.1%32 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes40c49.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes42c49.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes51c48.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6946240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes44c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No73c42.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8388973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c41.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.774,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2faa…26c2backed Yes42c41.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.032147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa4…4d69backed No70c41.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291250%6 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd0e…e3c8backed Yes49c40.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.224841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes28c39.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3619734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes56c35.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5462137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed No58c34.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes42c34.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8622335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No56c33.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.957150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes38c33.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8515527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes59c30.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5638454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes38c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.466835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.142,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No55c28.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8139543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes55c27.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.227255.6%40 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes69c25.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9566758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes40c25.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155736.8%21 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes50c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1215347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe55…516ebacked Yes51c23.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.382147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…9c59backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No73c15.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9520660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.