Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7310d43016d0bbee6a0d68bdbf039c20e90820184c77304ebd844a657b5c19c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 688.41$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.41 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 619.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 544.39$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 43c | 463.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.75 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 420.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 319.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 45c | 319.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 11c | 273.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 62c | 269.54$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.17 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 50c | 222.16$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 69c | 208.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 206.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 204.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 195.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 194.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 188.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 186.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 173.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 41c | 157.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 156.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 77c | 154.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 148.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 33c | 145.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 145.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 124.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 124.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 59c | 113.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 64c | 112.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 74c | 112.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 111.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 36c | 107.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 98.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 38c | 94.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 66c | 85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 80.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 51c | 80.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 56c | 78.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 56c | 78.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 29c | 75.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 35c | 67.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 35c | 65.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 64.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 58.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 58.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 56.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 40c | 55.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 40c | 55.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 45c | 55.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 46c | 53.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 49.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 49.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 51c | 48.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 42.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 41.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 42c | 41.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…4d69backed No | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…e3c8backed Yes | 49c | 40.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 39.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 56c | 35.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 34.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 33.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 38c | 33.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 30.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 55c | 28.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 55c | 27.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 69c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 40c | 25.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 51c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 73c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.