Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x337b937795c7dfe53026bfb27a8cd03dc98296469e537337a971ac74439cd46c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6792…b5f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,036$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 719.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 665.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 520.78$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 23c | 300.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 68c | 280.61$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 22c | 265.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 265$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 20c | 250.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 77c | 249.35$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 38c | 248.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 38c | 241.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 239.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 71c | 211.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 20c | 186.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 72c | 159.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 144.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 131.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 131$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 20c | 127.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 15c | 117.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 112.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 16c | 107.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 104.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 104.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 73c | 102.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 22c | 89.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 89.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 88.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 36c | 70.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 17c | 65.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…e3c8backed Yes | 24c | 63.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 29c | 63.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 60.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 60.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 30c | 58.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 62c | 58.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…9b93backed Yes | 25c | 51.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 49.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 28c | 48.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 71c | 46.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 46.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 45.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 43.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 43.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 25c | 41.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 32c | 39.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 37.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed No | 75c | 37.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 42c | 35.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 68c | 25.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68b4…6ec9backed No | 77c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.