TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c826.58$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2123723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes19c710$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.25052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c628.36$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6232748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes35c562.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.652927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c429.99$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c400.8$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1744138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes13c378.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2714521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes35c342.45$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.623531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No70c339$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1114959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c289.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3412816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No72c260.98$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.25957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4710629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes26c234.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.423030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes32c217.53$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6613646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes13c216.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.265248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c209$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes24c204$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.64240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No80c187.74$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.813155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No75c183$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7514454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No70c170$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.923551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes33c169.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8118342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes12c162.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.951855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes16c157.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c149.33$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.123459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes35c147.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c146.74$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No70c143.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2422355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes23c140$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.416934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c138$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4823044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No77c128.39$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.858844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb252…add8backed No80c126.68$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.15945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No72c119.88$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2718348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c117.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes13c108.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3422111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5710…b854backed Yes28c106.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes25c106$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5215036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes30c101.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.955536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.935644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes25c99.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.981850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No76c96.41$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.451353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd73…3cc0backed Yes25c95.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No80c94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9320065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5faf…76dfbacked No67c93.9$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No72c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.811053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c88.48$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed No70c83.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.328736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c83.53$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2236055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No75c82.23$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2318158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1815766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes16c79.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5317345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes26c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ac…4127backed No71c69.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.31346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58e…daeebacked No73c69.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.84875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes33c69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.772536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb674…e97abacked Yes29c68.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c67.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1632639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c65.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7332354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes31c62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2226632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7474…3db1backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.44355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes26c59.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.379558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No74c57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.118669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes29c52.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…3017backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.55954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.757129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes26c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes26c47.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3852850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c46.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8518035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No74c44.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.66683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No79c44.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.351050%5 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes34c39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.446357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes28c38.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes34c36.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No71c36.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.624146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0318662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No71c31.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.014355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5214467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No76c26.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.349123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No72c25.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.182250%11 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No77c21.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8724637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3466…6db5backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c18.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x01c0…b105backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.53884.2%32 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.155881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.063174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.867582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.