TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes49c1,426$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.5523723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes62c1,074$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.132927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No41c1,032$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.4614959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes41c801.5$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.384748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes79c733.3$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No33c729.41$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1921854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes45c695.82$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No9c597.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.239337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No43c531.09$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6632748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95db…f2a7backed Yes60c418.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No31c378.09$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes41c359.76$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.172653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c358.96$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No51c314.28$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.713646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes38c310.77$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.259123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes57c305.56$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1325052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes52c263.65$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.714842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No31c256.45$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.274841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c246$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3939952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No52c242$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7132354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No48c232.97$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8211839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes48c232.03$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.222133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes51c209.32$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.543531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbb…54e9backed Yes68c199.56$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No23c195.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…deb5backed Yes43c195$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes41c193.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No42c192.22$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.866346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5710…b854backed Yes55c187.48$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c182.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes33c181.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2523044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No45c181$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1113155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c180.97$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4723551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No52c168.88$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3722355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes44c157.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6113357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No47c151.69$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3818348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c150$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10812816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes54c147.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.182231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes31c142.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.126955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No55c142.02$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0120065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Yes51c138.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes43c138$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6610243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes46c137.66$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4416934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes49c137.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.647353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes53c130$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.12722.2%6 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-57.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No40c124.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No28c121.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.622958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf4…f4c3backed No47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No50c119.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.623360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes57c118.09$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.265536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No21c116.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.997335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb34b…00e4backed No49c111.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes43c110$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.74862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes55c101.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6218342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c101.68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No56c100.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1927143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes48c100.17$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39b…8dc6backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3211045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1a…2987backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d44…7023backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.625945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…ce8bbacked Yes53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.34966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes79c93.92$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.271662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes53c93.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No30c91.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3614521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa1…b55fbacked Yes75c89.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa738…a520backed Yes55c88.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c88.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes36c86.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.017741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No44c84.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.343551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1655…08e1backed No43c83.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No51c83.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3418035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed4…7a7dbacked Yes56c82.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.251758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.61752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No49c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.515766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…00a0backed No62c77.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c77.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0716834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-71%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No63c74.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.514259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes35c72.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1510733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No35c72.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.164355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes46c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.916738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No36c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.45957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes64c69.32$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.662240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No50c69.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.75954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes35c68.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.514153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes73c65.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No17c65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.054953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes49c61.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.744759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes68c61.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.367057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.751172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3728558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes50c59.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.996448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes46c58.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.674645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.