TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd39b…8dc6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: College Football, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 57 out of 100; worst Premier League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick63cpaid+51.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+112.8%+$328.6
Cardinals vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+33.3%+$50
Cowboys vs. Commandersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+33.3%+$237.5
Vikings vs. Giantsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+72.4%+$275.1
Texans vs. Coltsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+177.8%+$438.4
Buccaneers vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+33.3%+$51.5
Eagles vs. Giantsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$390
All 7 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+113.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.63
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$768Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$767.99
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+127.3%+$168
Utah vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$728Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+92.3%+$672
Predators vs. Canadiensbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.4
All 5 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$81.9
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$33.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Kopenhagen vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$95.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Sep 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kayserispor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$117
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.