Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x930f8c40ce034d6a13ab183b0e2f323b393f61604c56fd017b3ce49001a7fd4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 1,383$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 1,309$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 1,103$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 1,063$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 48c | 1,015$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.02 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 50c | 996.84$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.81 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed No | 71c | 814$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.64 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 648.2$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 49c | 614.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 57c | 371.34$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 335.04$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 328$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 47c | 322$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.37 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 312.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 59c | 296.95$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 271.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 268.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 259.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 246$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 227.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 223.78$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 39c | 223.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 220$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 207.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 199.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 184.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 41c | 181.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 56c | 173.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 160.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 160$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 151.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 143.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 140.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 131.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 70c | 126.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 124$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 33c | 123.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 70c | 120.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 118.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 111$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 50c | 100.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 56c | 100.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…8dc6backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 62c | 95.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 92.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 86.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 79.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 42c | 76.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 70.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 36c | 69.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 31c | 66.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 63.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 62.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 55c | 61.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 66c | 61.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 61.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x475e…3a28backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 60.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 59.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 58.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 37c | 57.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 66c | 56.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 55.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 47c | 53.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 38c | 52.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 49.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 64c | 48.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 47c | 47.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 47c | 47.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 44.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 31c | 42.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…82a9backed Yes | 34c | 40.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 41c | 40.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 38.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 38.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 38c | 38.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 33c | 36.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.