Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc42a41bfd07e50ca16e2816d2e1909af07dffadbaf4fd87579b525183d5745fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 6c | 1,800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 1,608$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 76c | 1,400$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 1,373$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.89 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 1,211$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 71c | 1,000$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.46 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 808.43$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 718.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 43c | 617.36$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.72 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 530.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 31c | 496.75$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.76 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…82a9backed Yes | 32c | 378.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 17c | 373.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 358.51$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 32c | 355.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.25 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 18c | 317$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.27 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 306.29$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 263$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 249.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 246.41$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 236.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 230.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 67c | 223.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 220.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 192.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 33c | 192.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 190.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.91 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 187.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 35c | 187.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 172.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 171.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 35c | 170.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 152.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 36c | 149.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 35c | 130.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 124.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 16c | 111.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 109.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 107.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 12c | 100.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 98.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 15c | 88.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 86.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 78.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 75.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 72.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 18c | 71.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 70.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 62c | 64.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 28c | 61.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…e3c8backed Yes | 20c | 60.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 61c | 58.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 56.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 33c | 56.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 55c | 54.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 20c | 53.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 53.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 47.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 26c | 47.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 72c | 46.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 45.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 27c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 38.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 38.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 31c | 37.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 36.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 36.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…2683backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 51c | 34.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 41c | 33.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.