Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari vs. Inter end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1889235c1bdceb95aeb8a78c4179385d7be0c78703613d395f3661ec66b2f8ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 2,519$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.33 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…00d8backed Yes | 23c | 391.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 341$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 14c | 307.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 249$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 20c | 89.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 80c | 89.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…b129backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0a…4912backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…8dc6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 78c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 78c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari vs. Inter end in a draw?this page
- Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will Inter win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.