Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7f2f272fc99550462c2803ef1b72142ad8b133071438df85d8df470f084acfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 9,844$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.01 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 67c | 5,043$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 34c | 4,500$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 67c | 4,000$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Yes | 33c | 3,466$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed No | 68c | 2,277$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,943$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.63 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Yes | 10c | 1,306$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 31c | 1,057$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.13 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 947$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.45 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 67c | 883.56$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.57 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 66c | 876.56$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 66c | 399.96$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked No | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 33c | 333$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…6275backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…582dbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…8dc6backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…31cabacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 66c | 294$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 66c | 287.06$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 34c | 285.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae7…7ee5backed Yes | 33c | 275.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 32c | 249.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 34c | 230$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 203.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…ea40backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2e76backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 67c | 174.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…ea6cbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 148$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…c61fbacked Yes | 32c | 124.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…eccfbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…2194backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 32c | 90.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 34c | 74.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 34c | 58.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…b4b9backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 69c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
- Will Lazio vs. AS Roma end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.