Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio vs. AS Roma end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x286738d3ab4c6c401c3ccbc1b10b7857199f82e783704639f3d0aded9d85326d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 31c | 4,501$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.44 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 3,655$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.56 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 1,106$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.71 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 73c | 865.03$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.63 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 586.78$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 32c | 309.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 68c | 295$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad9…ee23backed Yes | 28c | 271.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 76c | 210.53$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…9fecbacked Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 31c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 33c | 90.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed Yes | 41c | 87.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb48…1308backed No | 75c | 39.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…a252backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 68c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio vs. AS Roma end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
- Will Lazio win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.