TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,931 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefe1…d798backed No36c14,047$5,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,951.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+175.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes1c8,691$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes2c6,433$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.26348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes2c4,755$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked Yes12c3,894$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.631250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbcd…49a5backed Yes59c3,830$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,510$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.672522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes16c2,750$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.75111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…d1a8backed Yes4c2,521$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,257$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,747$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3621713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes1c1,599$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.271442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes7c1,583$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.819040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcc9…2997backed Yes5c1,528$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes10c1,463$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.151867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33f0…b7aebacked Yes4c1,412$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes4c1,388$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.528826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c6…e302backed Yes70c1,361$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d8…3484backed Yes73c1,353$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.17540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ac…bc7dbacked No51c1,345$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.715100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+151%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4453…dd3bbacked No38c1,245$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170d…c42cbacked Yes76c1,214$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes73c1,198$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed Yes6c1,179$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x755d…2721backed No29c1,109$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb900…05c6backed Yes2c1,077$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c1,038$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.05185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3804729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes61c959.35$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.593652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked No38c954.65$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+145.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes3c909.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c13…ef7cbacked Yes72c861.17$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No40c836.33$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.5111841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…a9eabacked Yes44c819.53$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c780.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.153042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe876…1d22backed Yes6c740$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0474…2894backed Yes7c736.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No33c690.61$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.5319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed Yes72c689.75$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-81%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd64e…07cabacked Yes65c669.61$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e3…a970backed Yes44c665$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdea…a777backed No40c659.36$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9eb…e9b4backed Yes4c613.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked No33c579.93$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.852860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed No56c571$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.242536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes44c564.43$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.953043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…65a5backed No40c551.98$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa99e…fa3dbacked No28c544.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+263.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xece8…cac6backed No31c529.46$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+90.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e55…b890backed Yes2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes69c516.41$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.952763%17 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c514.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.191,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5970…3f20backed Yes47c485.62$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c476.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.271414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63d0…87edbacked Yes24c463.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No67c441.03$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.4720544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c438.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No27c425.08$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.5925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes16c424.44$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.915510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d0…d9b8backed Yes64c403.16$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.03520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes50c396.67$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes44c391.09$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes63c379.45$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes44c378$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.321442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes42c375.64$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2614250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12bf…bcf0backed Yes5c375$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes60c374$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed47…5d79backed Yes76c350.36$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b3…b95abacked Yes58c339.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8116…d945backed Yes59c339.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe4…5504backed Yes61c337.17$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.01825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82fd…deb1backed Yes54c335.37$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1cf…8739backed No41c331.61$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No29c329.57$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0620731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2452…4571backed Yes63c319.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed Yes61c315$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.861631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c6…a6c6backed Yes70c305$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d4b…eedfbacked No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a644backed Yes63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes55c293.29$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.791513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes37c292.86$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc346…345fbacked Yes5c283.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed No40c282$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.21625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0e…4838backed Yes4c277.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f1…23bcbacked No56c269.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed No41c267.83$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.83475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick20cpaid+450.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed No48c260.24$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-58.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b7…6936backed Yes59c252.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No34c240.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.651947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes60c234.69$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.411442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes57c229.89$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8212050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed No39c217.27$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb8…9a11backed No47c211.01$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a31…d45bbacked No49c205.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8952…1f26backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+92.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ad…8a1abacked Yes70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee65…5067backed Yes56c199.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed Yes61c199.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.