AI · resolved market
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x393597a940aa5faab1d55288fe2201560a46bc221ed714ba0cf866b680d764ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 33c | 3,006$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…4f2cbacked No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 12c | 1,203$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…0579backed No | 19c | 1,023$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 5c | 859.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…0712backed No | 6c | 575.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…6936backed Yes | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 33c | 478.92$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.84 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 4c | 478.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 10c | 437.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 76c | 416.43$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 4c | 385.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 10c | 209$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 208.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…ce61backed No | 6c | 184.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 9c | 148.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 148.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…9658backed No | 14c | 140.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 34c | 139$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 15c | 136.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x903d…84a1backed No | 11c | 125.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ce1ebacked No | 10c | 114.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…1d0dbacked No | 14c | 108.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15?this page
- Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.