TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,379 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes25c871.77$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c512.75$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.934,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c490.05$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes32c475.63$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No73c444.97$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.12,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed No67c441.21$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.321258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes21c394.19$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1848523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6961…511bbacked No80c366.78$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.284461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No69c304.52$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8219737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c292$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.464,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c280$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.93,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes28c278.16$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.145736.8%21 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c272.73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.461,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c254.91$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.74,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes8c212.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.962,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9281…60febacked Yes22c201.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe405…2fc3backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002020%4 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No67c199.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.516552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c198.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.342,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes8c193.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.792,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c193.36$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No70c186.91$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5415570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes28c175$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c170.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.593,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c168.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.276,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd496…0ab0backed Yes61c168$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.131952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes15c166.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.871679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c161.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.351,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes14c158.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.292,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0324…01fbbacked Yes27c145.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes21c136$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.941,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c134.49$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes17c129.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3622945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No75c128$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3254853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes20c125.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.122,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes32c124.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.111146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No75c122.21$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5727246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes41c115.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.75937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes25c115.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.32,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes20c114.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.153,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c112.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.655,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes16c112.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8156322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes25c111.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.591,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes26c110$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.96750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa7…3767backed No70c107.39$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes11c106.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.492,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No71c103.85$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5379947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes19c103.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.322,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2543959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.74632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes34c99.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.958027.5%22 W · 58 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce5…6233backed No76c99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1613559.3%80 W · 55 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No73c98.07$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6276059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c96.04$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No71c95.8$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.17862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes13c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes17c83.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.926,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a50…ee23backed Yes25c80.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c76$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.385,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes24c73.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.812,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes28c73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes32c72.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.351,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No68c72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.347935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes32c69.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.412630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes33c68.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.252,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No67c65.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.631,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes24c64.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd01…e719backed Yes40c62.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c61.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.494,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No78c60.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5423666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed No74c60.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.738139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2115669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No73c59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.131,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes18c58.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.74,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No70c56.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.812,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes22c56.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3312629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes25c56.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9552322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes25c52.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.172,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No60c52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes23c51.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.781,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1371057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes22c48.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7137150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed Yes24c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6219260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes34c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes23c44.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1950860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes35c41.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0a2…9633backed No64c41.47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.081963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5888…1109backed No74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.542360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+67.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No68c40.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.911,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.