Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f144450d42c166183d7aacccba3f83a0f63bcee75892698d6583254e368e726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 3,075$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 12c | 780$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 11c | 555.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 15c | 503.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 16c | 451.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 15c | 416.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 347.6$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 14c | 290.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 9c | 288.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 20c | 260.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 254.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 12c | 253.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 22c | 239.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 237$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…af49backed No | 79c | 220$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 192.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 190.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 189$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 32c | 173.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 8c | 156.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 13c | 151.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 10c | 136.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 10c | 131.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 79c | 119$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…8bbabacked Yes | 12c | 104.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 101.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 94.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 16c | 93.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 15c | 85.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 76.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 17c | 74.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 22c | 68.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…53a5backed Yes | 15c | 66.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 20c | 66.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 61.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed No | 78c | 58.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 40c | 49.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 27c | 49.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 31.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 80c | 16.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.