Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd793309c8eca582487afeade96a5b9abbc93ca4adc4774218be66bd6193dc5eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 57c | 2,115$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.46 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 7c | 1,613$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 79c | 1,050$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 63c | 912.62$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 776.69$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 776.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.55 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 68c | 704.59$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.59 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 76c | 687.46$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 632.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.06 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 77c | 566.2$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 55c | 528.83$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.87 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 52c | 513.88$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.66 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 56c | 492.72$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 43c | 470.46$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.91 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 435.88$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 32c | 433.31$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 45c | 381.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.75 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 371.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…fa93backed Yes | 43c | 341.48$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 271$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.47 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 41c | 259.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 258.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 56c | 253.15$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 250.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 45c | 239.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 228.15$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 224.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 33c | 221.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…af49backed No | 37c | 220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 56c | 211.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 209.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 40c | 203$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.83 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 77c | 190$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 77c | 181.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes | 51c | 177.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 175$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.66 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 162.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 62c | 161.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 158.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…01fbbacked No | 53c | 158.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 49c | 154.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 52c | 146.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 36c | 145$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 143$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 140.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 138.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 138.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 131.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 60c | 126.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 126.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 60c | 126$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 51c | 124.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 123.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 45c | 123.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 56c | 121.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 120.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 116$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 115.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…6691backed No | 49c | 113.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked Yes | 62c | 113.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 66c | 113.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 112$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 110.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 46c | 109.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 105.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 73c | 101$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 100.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 74c | 94.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 93.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 42c | 87.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 48c | 83.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 71c | 83.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 80.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 79.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 75c | 78.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 78.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 77.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 28c | 77.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 77.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 39c | 76.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 77c | 75.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 75.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 73.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 70.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 70c | 69.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 45c | 66.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 42c | 65.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 38c | 65.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 65.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.