AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53278338f3435a8829bdee6df7aef4d949d40dca2a4a0b10be1de8baa440b80d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,454$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,799$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.89 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,639$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 16c | 1,625$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.83 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,386$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 937.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…a628backed Yes | 3c | 879.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 869.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 15c | 763.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 1c | 712.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…da07backed Yes | 48c | 701.56$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 11c | 491.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 77c | 463.09$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 15c | 451.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 19c | 444.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 440.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…82c8backed Yes | 14c | 404.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…6021backed Yes | 12c | 384.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 357.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 17c | 355.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…db1ebacked Yes | 40c | 332.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…9ebfbacked Yes | 33c | 306.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 302.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…072ebacked Yes | 18c | 291.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 261.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…edd5backed Yes | 34c | 174.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…8785backed Yes | 31c | 158.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 69c | 156.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 20c | 153.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 153.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…9957backed Yes | 28c | 149.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…4e88backed Yes | 15c | 135.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 35c | 134.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 11c | 133.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed Yes | 39c | 125.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 27c | 124.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 78c | 121.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…e3a7backed Yes | 12c | 119.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…7b66backed Yes | 18c | 111.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 64c | 102.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…1228backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…3cc8backed Yes | 26c | 96.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…140fbacked Yes | 20c | 94.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…b07ebacked Yes | 43c | 92.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…d5b7backed Yes | 41c | 85.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce81…0f99backed Yes | 17c | 72.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 69.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 38c | 59.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 72c | 58.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 58.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…3894backed Yes | 28c | 57.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e8…a899backed Yes | 20c | 55.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d7…e59dbacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2296…4911backed Yes | 22c | 51.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…e2e5backed Yes | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…7bfbbacked Yes | 29c | 43.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…542fbacked Yes | 44c | 39.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…5ef2backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 79c | 24.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…2283backed Yes | 48c | 22.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on June 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on June 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.