AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabd96e487e555ba453ac910c441b38107976ab078759a42b9470bdffe8f42364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 35c | 1,388$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 10c | 766.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.69 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 11c | 622.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 24c | 598.92$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 68c | 477.3$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 405.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.66 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 79c | 373.17$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 33c | 348.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 69c | 336.07$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.67 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 39c | 319.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.52 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 32c | 303.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 33c | 300.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 276.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.6 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 10c | 245.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +223.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 19c | 245.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 13c | 233.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…934cbacked Yes | 32c | 220.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 205.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.13 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…923fbacked Yes | 74c | 201.37$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…8448backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 34c | 179.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 36c | 169$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 28c | 160.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 75c | 132.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbd…261bbacked Yes | 76c | 130.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 12c | 130.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…f224backed Yes | 13c | 124.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed Yes | 77c | 105.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…18debacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…0f43backed Yes | 65c | 99.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 72c | 94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 13c | 84.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 74c | 82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 75c | 76.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…6ec9backed Yes | 73c | 76.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 76.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 46c | 66.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 55c | 63.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 68c | 61.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…701cbacked Yes | 68c | 58.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…9263backed Yes | 78c | 51.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…1709backed Yes | 39c | 48.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…f17bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…7368backed Yes | 62c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae0…3a63backed Yes | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 54c | 19.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…3622backed Yes | 74c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on June 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.