AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f32748075108b4cb57fdc3bd2d41ab8a627045abdde049948cb4933f2345932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 52c | 3,258$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 33c | 2,500$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.66 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 61c | 1,805$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 66c | 1,576$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed No | 36c | 1,224$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 67c | 1,222$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,216$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.2 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,149$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 31c | 1,043$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 22c | 934.89$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.64 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 69c | 803.56$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 787.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 38c | 691.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.48 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 646.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 67c | 522.16$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.44 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 61c | 499.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…aa22backed Yes | 20c | 499.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 419.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 69c | 340$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 76c | 333.86$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 77c | 318.8$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 75c | 300$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 55c | 284.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 67c | 265.78$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b54…6e4fbacked No | 80c | 253.93$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 224.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Yes | 21c | 223.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 211.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 201.53$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 70c | 197.91$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 49c | 191.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked No | 47c | 170.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 13c | 153.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…8590backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…bc06backed No | 69c | 139.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 29c | 131.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…85ddbacked Yes | 77c | 130.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 129$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 46c | 127$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…90b0backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc216…b083backed Yes | 20c | 100.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 57c | 93.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…3cc8backed Yes | 28c | 90.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…140fbacked Yes | 23c | 87.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 23c | 79.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 74c | 76.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 74c | 76.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes | 66c | 76.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed No | 77c | 64.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…51b0backed Yes | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1c…aedcbacked Yes | 20c | 54.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…7faabacked No | 38c | 51.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…8fafbacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 44.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 38.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…613abacked Yes | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…39dfbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54eb…0371backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…86b2backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77e…a505backed No | 70c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…e687backed No | 79c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on June 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on June 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $370b and $380b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $380b and $390b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on June 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.