World Politics · resolved market
Will the Japan Innovation Party be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x975c6e255da2c0e27d0c23a5f2cec302946001ba54709684248fbf3998075bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 17c | 1,830$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.69 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 75c | 1,428$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 1,300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 27c | 1,164$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…74efbacked No | 45c | 909.95$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Yes | 60c | 749.11$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…196abacked Yes | 17c | 595.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 57c | 483.98$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 10c | 309$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 48c | 182.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…f8a3backed Yes | 32c | 154.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 16c | 149.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…ebf6backed Yes | 30c | 99.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 71c | 54.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 61c | 53.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ca…7bb9backed No | 77c | 43.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…91cfbacked No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Japan Innovation Party be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?this page
- Will Reiwa Shinsengumi be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?No won
- Will Sanseitō be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?No won
- Will Team Mirai be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party of Japan be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Democratic Party for the People be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.