Fifa International · resolved market
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b6425132f3834b7ded2a8fb83eb8a24a60574735ab6ed5b57597650adcc071c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 5c | 4,541$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.43 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,814$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,712$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 7c | 2,786$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,695$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 452 | 48.9%221 W · 231 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…a2aabacked Yes | 9c | 2,666$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +206.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 8c | 1,850$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,809$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,772$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…9842backed Yes | 6c | 1,693$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…3c5cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,605$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,377$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb9…78bcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,191$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,055$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…4297backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…b787backed Yes | 10c | 987.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…cafebacked Yes | 3c | 839.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 9c | 750.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde10…1139backed Yes | 13c | 686.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe93e…82f7backed Yes | 4c | 677.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 9c | 625.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 68c | 603.17$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…e7cdbacked Yes | 15c | 488.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…d176backed Yes | 10c | 487.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fec…f99fbacked Yes | 2c | 484.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a7…c543backed Yes | 13c | 467.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Yes | 31c | 453.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd79…60a6backed Yes | 8c | 442.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff86…801fbacked Yes | 6c | 424.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 5c | 401.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 22.2%32 W · 112 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…c606backed Yes | 5c | 369.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…7faebacked Yes | 28c | 358.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 347.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0a…f8d8backed Yes | 8c | 337.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 305.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 79c | 297.05$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Yes | 8c | 291.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…a21ebacked Yes | 10c | 287.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…63d5backed Yes | 9c | 265.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 235.55$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb37…7106backed Yes | 9c | 227.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…7158backed Yes | 6c | 220.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 215.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…4722backed No | 68c | 209.68$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…c681backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…fc56backed Yes | 6c | 193.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f1bbbacked Yes | 9c | 160.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 21c | 147.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…83e8backed Yes | 10c | 144.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f0…d353backed No | 76c | 131.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…a193backed Yes | 10c | 131.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 119.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 13c | 116.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 36.7%65 W · 112 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…6150backed Yes | 23c | 108.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…f26fbacked Yes | 35c | 103.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f9…54dbbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…97d0backed Yes | 28c | 54.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…9f6abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 31.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 76c | 29.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 112 | 63.4%71 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 75c | 23.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 60c | 21.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?this page
- Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.