TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$293,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$301,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes3c15,103$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.025846.6%27 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes2c8,553$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.081625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes9c4,641$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.2412654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes30c4,584$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.9819739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes15c2,933$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.1628427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e58…4668backed Yes1c2,850$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick7cpaid+378.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No73c2,812$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.793132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes17c2,482$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.4942818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No74c2,402$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.9436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c2,319$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.2789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No80c2,258$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.5435355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes12c2,200$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2732231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+111.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes18c2,049$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.71519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed No31c2,015$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.122948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40035347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked No58c1,951$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.685347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes16c1,863$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.816613.6%9 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked No49c1,556$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.296028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2352…120bbacked Yes20c1,525$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa597…c90dbacked No50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7504030%12 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9476…8641backed Yes50c1,495$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes59c1,488$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.917820.5%16 W · 62 L-11.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes14c1,421$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.654928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes30c1,390$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.613544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes18c1,351$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.068359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309f…b99cbacked Yes19c1,243$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.281741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No73c1,179$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.7718738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No46c1,165$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.8945843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes26c1,116$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.548630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes17c1,115$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.16636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes17c1,076$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2920143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ba…b3f9backed Yes25c1,010$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.43256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes72c1,005$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.2529653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No80c1,000$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes40c942.53$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.572030%6 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+86.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes28c890$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.17032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No40c883.17$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.5319056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c800$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.67135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dfa…c7a6backed Yes69c744.27$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes24c741.18$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3272…e542backed No55c730$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3313464.7%22 W · 12 L+7.3wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked No72c690.51$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x246b…1196backed No80c645.45$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No49c600$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.2221751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yes29c583.15$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.089855.1%54 W · 44 L+24.9wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+76.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes12c555$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8411537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes26c539.75$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5229027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes8c520.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5419428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes17c516.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.712362.6%77 W · 46 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes20c514.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6430649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x78b3…b95abacked Yes20c510$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.83158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked No66c505.81$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.86336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Yes77c500$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3851855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf95b…14ecbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked No70c500$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1521457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4075…8fb8backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes9c485.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes16c483$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.283215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes21c476$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9615625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No63c474.21$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.536330.2%19 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed Yes20c438.69$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.276546.2%30 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+92.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed No75c414.08$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.272240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c401.25$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No39c399.98$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.994223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes55c398.22$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.834634.8%16 W · 30 L-7.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes21c367.03$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.110045%45 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed Yes14c365.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.173135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No76c356.89$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9335652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes66c345.9$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2936750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes24c335.4$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9510141.6%42 W · 59 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes22c325$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.56041.7%25 W · 35 L+12.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+102.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x73ca…055abacked Yes22c325$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes68c310.77$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7125339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12614352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes43c299.65$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.954757.4%27 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes16c299.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.05147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-91.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c295.25$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8834432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae70…abfbbacked No69c294.3$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.432857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes26c288.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3313250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe425…9e9abacked Yes13c288$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No76c276.07$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed Yes25c263.21$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.956735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes33c260.84$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8517247.7%82 W · 90 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No70c258.3$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.497636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4d…96b9backed Yes76c255.28$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.012236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes68c244.3$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.69348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No28c235.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.57548%36 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No53c225.08$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6228734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes15c222.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6636626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes15c218.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.529068.9%62 W · 28 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x61d1…a379backed Yes68c217.75$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1491717.6%3 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.29per pick47cpaid-66%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2aa0…3895backed Yes74c216.06$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.68955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c212.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+86.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed No45c203.73$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.826756.7%38 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4156…dcd6backed Yes73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.