TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,819 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30b0…ef51backed Yes28c2,950$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdd…bcf4backed No72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+196.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2508…2e79backed No72c1,450$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes8c712.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.118410.7%9 W · 75 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8845…06bcbacked Yes31c327.01$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.779135.2%32 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes12c317.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1534618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes24c305.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4235432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c299.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes28c296$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.711,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No66c288.36$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No60c277.79$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3657545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No66c243.73$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0354143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed No74c242.56$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.115257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c232$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c227.35$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.172,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes14c200.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.360121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes45c199.72$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.048640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd914…a9c2backed Yes17c191.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes25c182$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes37c179.13$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.478834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No78c166.46$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1557659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf05e…04cebacked Yes14c162.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.912650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No72c138.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.187576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c136.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No76c130.8$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.586674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes30c130.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.831,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes32c123.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.92528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No70c122.14$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6452245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c114.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes19c109.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8716434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c106.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.873,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ff…5c2abacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No67c95.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9460851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes20c92.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes29c89.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9111044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c84.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.347,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes30c77.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1330333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c75.38$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes49c73.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1866543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c73.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.613,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes23c65.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0463757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes27c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5235843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.466735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes35c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.511,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0d…4ed5backed No76c56.59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.392951.7%15 W · 14 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-31.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes38c52.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes31c50.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.833946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a3…bca4backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf03d…2bcfbacked No68c48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.473278.1%25 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No73c47.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe573…ae05backed Yes37c40.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154637%17 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac8…0837backed No75c40.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.242975.9%22 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.89434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.26939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ae…6754backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c39.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No64c39.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No50c39.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c39.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.23,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf12…cda6backed No55c38.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No76c38.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.361782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf579…b6a9backed Yes38c38.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes39c33.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No76c32.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.847375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes31c32.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a2…5cdabacked No76c31.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.385872.4%42 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be2…cba5backed No76c30.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.222759.3%16 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick74cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed Yes36c30.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.743636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76ae…99f1backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6883…4406backed No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick77cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No61c27.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a76…5584backed No67c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95058%29 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No55c25.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.631,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes54c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8810537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3142…441fbacked No75c20.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.09366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc744…955cbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd08a…60a4backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd725…0ba3backed No73c18.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.062272.7%16 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e5…df92backed No71c16.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe466…1a58backed No68c15.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.092759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.452642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd65…c0b1backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.479162.6%57 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadad…f309backed No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.55683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No73c14.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8276371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.