Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb81e0dcec010410cb983db6fd9a2e60e83e4c0c871d4bd8e23d3e878aa0166f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,646 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbba8…59f4backed No | 58c | 1,890$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d8…772abacked Yes | 42c | 1,870$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 72c | 1,140$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.91 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 57c | 1,005$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.53 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 593.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 394.47$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 37c | 301.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 30c | 299.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 296$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 72c | 289.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 262.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 77c | 257.8$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 18c | 235.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.36 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 232$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 230.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 183.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 48c | 178.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 32c | 172.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 165.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 34c | 165$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 21c | 163.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed No | 62c | 162.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 162.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 45c | 156.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 148.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 141.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked No | 25c | 122.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 122.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 121.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 71c | 115.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 16c | 113.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 34c | 112.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 36c | 112.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 105.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 102.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 57c | 100.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 98.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 31c | 91.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 47c | 84.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 74c | 83.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 62c | 80.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 76.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 19c | 73.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 72.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 41c | 71.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 66.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 40c | 63.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 42c | 57.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 54.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 54.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed Yes | 59c | 45.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 53c | 45.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 28c | 41.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 40.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…be0cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 37.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 35c | 36.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 36.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…2831backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 73c | 23.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 46c | 22.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 65c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 61c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 66c | 16.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.