Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df26a61ba3287edd3a4172ebc0a218807013017ff8f573ace783b18cd7f84f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,430 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,124$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,442$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked No | 80c | 3,614$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 1c | 2,435$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,921$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 77c | 1,768$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.98 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…6cd2backed Yes | 5c | 1,603$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…e547backed Yes | 24c | 1,552$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 40c | 1,534$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.24 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,479$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 1,328$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,267$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 1,210$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.07 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 932.61$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 14c | 902.08$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 8c | 834.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 807.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 692.91$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 637.7$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 2c | 619.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 584.3$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…b17cbacked Yes | 21c | 546.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed Yes | 22c | 532.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 6c | 490.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 427.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…ae87backed Yes | 12c | 418.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 406.66$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…deb9backed Yes | 6c | 318.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 32c | 315.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Yes | 32c | 313.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…72fbbacked Yes | 14c | 310.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…48f4backed Yes | 19c | 310.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 22c | 301.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 14c | 300.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 300.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 294.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 69c | 290$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5607backed Yes | 36c | 277.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 78c | 270.82$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 25c | 270.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 267.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 37c | 246.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 14c | 242.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 240.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 238$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed Yes | 9c | 229.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 14c | 227.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 71c | 226.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…49efbacked Yes | 44c | 225.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 79c | 221.68$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed No | 65c | 219.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 6c | 211.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 207.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 204.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…b6a9backed Yes | 20c | 204.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 201.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…821fbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 16c | 199.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…d64bbacked Yes | 32c | 197.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 11c | 195$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 18c | 191.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 71c | 187.27$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…18dbbacked Yes | 7c | 183.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 66c | 181$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 33c | 179.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…c006backed Yes | 18c | 168.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…8734backed Yes | 18c | 167.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 165.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…b542backed Yes | 21c | 164.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +539.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 163.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 10c | 160.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 159.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 19c | 157.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 78c | 154.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 153.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed No | 65c | 153$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…d118backed Yes | 28c | 152.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 34c | 150.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 79c | 147.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed No | 71c | 143.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 22c | 139.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked No | 66c | 136.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 136.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 17c | 135.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 42c | 128.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…a226backed Yes | 42c | 124.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 18c | 123$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…8a34backed Yes | 33c | 116.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 10c | 114$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 31c | 113.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…ae46backed Yes | 18c | 111.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 110.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 12c | 109.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.