TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,430 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes8c5,124$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.972,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc575…d68ebacked Yes8c4,442$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No80c3,614$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.113441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a84…e23abacked Yes1c2,435$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.241822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c1,921$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.676,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed No77c1,768$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9886226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83de…6cd2backed Yes5c1,603$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.42520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc736…e547backed Yes24c1,552$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes40c1,534$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.2442857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes15c1,479$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.94,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes7c1,328$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9734319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes6c1,300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a55…359cbacked Yes33c1,267$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.442222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes18c1,210$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c932.61$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes14c902.08$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.151,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes8c834.56$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7959923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c807.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.492,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No71c692.91$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.141,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c637.7$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes2c619.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4426828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes22c584.3$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac5…b17cbacked Yes21c546.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x407d…87b0backed Yes22c532.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.443669.4%25 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes6c490.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x740e…93a9backed Yes22c455$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.13748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes16c427.18$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.321,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3557…ae87backed Yes12c418.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No76c406.66$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef94…deb9backed Yes6c318.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.16147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed Yes32c315.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa05…fed7backed Yes32c313.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3784…72fbbacked Yes14c310.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…48f4backed Yes19c310.05$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.071533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes22c301.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6622023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes14c300.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0236930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes25c300.13$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2111533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4846232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c294.03$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.51,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed No69c290$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.98433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ff4…5607backed Yes36c277.29$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked No78c270.82$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6429469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes25c270.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.753636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes16c267.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.841,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes37c246.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.622020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes14c242.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0320027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c240.6$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.42,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes14c238$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3232133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb070…5726backed Yes9c229.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes14c227.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.481029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No71c226.99$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d22…49efbacked Yes44c225.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No79c221.68$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed No65c219.34$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.63732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes6c211.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0122236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c207.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes7c204.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.928,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf579…b6a9backed Yes20c204.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes14c201.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5370133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9d…821fbacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c199.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5cb…d64bbacked Yes32c197.12$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.08742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes11c195$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9216532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes18c191.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No71c187.27$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.051931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7723…18dbbacked Yes7c183.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No66c181$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8325175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes33c179.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd886…c006backed Yes18c168.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f4…8734backed Yes18c167.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No67c165.6$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.491,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b5…b542backed Yes21c164.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+539.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c163.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes10c160.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4732044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c159.4$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.915,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes19c157.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7913…8ef6backed No78c154.12$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.442650%13 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c153.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x393d…6b95backed No65c153$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x650b…d118backed Yes28c152.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes34c150.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.965141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc219…04fabacked Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+33.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8129137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No79c147.91$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7719060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5639…7246backed No71c143.28$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.594100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes9c140$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7623738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No22c139.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x58de…83afbacked No66c136.61$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.612572%18 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c136.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.242,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes17c135.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.045228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2414338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes42c128.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaeb…a226backed Yes42c124.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c79…c259backed Yes18c123$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.143467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f45…8a34backed Yes33c116.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.28333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd03…932fbacked Yes10c114$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.784126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes31c113.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.166137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a8…ae46backed Yes18c111.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c110.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed Yes12c109.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.