Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89607c9bd0251b77453ee838709d4f428103c6e9da5f60f8edf64eb114ff9822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,751 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked Yes | 1c | 10,623$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 1c | 10,187$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 1c | 7,494$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 3c | 6,082$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 6c | 6,012$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.38 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,820$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,381$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,735$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…a4c8backed Yes | 32c | 2,678$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda41…89e4backed Yes | 33c | 2,626$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 1,727$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,607$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ee…34fabacked No | 68c | 1,362$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 14c | 1,354$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…216abacked No | 67c | 1,322$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…b736backed No | 68c | 1,316$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…a9efbacked No | 67c | 1,304$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,285$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,070$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,017$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 6c | 954.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 14c | 950.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 936.72$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 3c | 866.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 845.72$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 21c | 806.33$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 28c | 762.39$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 681$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.43 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…42f0backed No | 80c | 661.4$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 598.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 7c | 589.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed Yes | 17c | 588.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 584.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 526.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 2c | 524.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 512.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 30c | 510.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.44 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 479.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 3c | 442.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 6c | 435.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 7c | 427.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 419$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 5c | 401.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 399.96$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 366.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…48f4backed Yes | 32c | 316.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…e547backed Yes | 32c | 314.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 306.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 29c | 298.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 295.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 36c | 284.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 11c | 250.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 38c | 248.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 69c | 247.56$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 18c | 244.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 21c | 236.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 236.19$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 221$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 220.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 71c | 211.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 23c | 210.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 24c | 206.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 32c | 205.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 26c | 195$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 9c | 189.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 76c | 184.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 78c | 173.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 69c | 173.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 166.07$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 24c | 164$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 159.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 159.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 29c | 137.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 31c | 132.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 129.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 31c | 127.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 59c | 126.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked No | 67c | 126.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 20c | 124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…05aebacked Yes | 23c | 124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 120.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 119.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e0…dadbbacked Yes | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 24c | 114.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 31c | 114.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 10c | 108.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59d…50b9backed Yes | 31c | 108$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…fcccbacked Yes | 24c | 107.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe69e…26a1backed Yes | 32c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 60c | 105.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d57…b951backed Yes | 32c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 26c | 100.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.