Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0b6b15099c246fc5e61311f76f0e11f492cde511c28a083c51eb008bf08aec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 1,928$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 1,662$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 1,081$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 828.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 24c | 806.15$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.08 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 733.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.62 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 717.74$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.66 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 566.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.02 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 496.76$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 490.35$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 66c | 474.15$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 62c | 472.61$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.85 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 454.38$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 388.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.67 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 17c | 363.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.61 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 14c | 344.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 29c | 343.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 45c | 341.35$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.47 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 57c | 325.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 24c | 324.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.28 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…48f4backed Yes | 29c | 319.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 30c | 314.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.17 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.12 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 42c | 288.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 29c | 287.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.75 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 267.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 266.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 249.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.53 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 37c | 228.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 69c | 228$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 10c | 223.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 31c | 216.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 216.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 213.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 196.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.76 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 31c | 195.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.23 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 26c | 195$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…a226backed Yes | 36c | 193.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 192.66$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 11c | 182.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.69 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 55c | 168.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…b56bbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 147.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 74c | 140.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 139.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 138.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 14c | 137.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 136.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 30c | 131.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 25c | 129.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 30c | 126.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…fd56backed Yes | 22c | 126$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 31c | 125.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbedc…aa38backed Yes | 21c | 124$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 115.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 114.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 109.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 108.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 76c | 106.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c8aebacked Yes | 24c | 106$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82b…c85dbacked Yes | 23c | 103$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 38c | 100.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 22c | 98.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 98.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 64c | 93.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 68c | 92.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…5f73backed No | 72c | 89.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 23c | 87.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 71c | 87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0b…2361backed Yes | 19c | 87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 84.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 56c | 84.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…ae46backed Yes | 30c | 84.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 36c | 82.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 29c | 76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 33c | 74.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…d4cdbacked Yes | 24c | 67.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 65.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…e311backed No | 78c | 59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 34c | 58.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 68c | 58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.