TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,589 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfef7…3e02backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c1,928$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.176,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No11c1,662$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6259923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c1,081$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.934,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No8c828.18$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8759742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes24c806.15$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.083732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes26c733.33$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.621,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No73c717.74$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.6691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes18c566.59$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.0256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No61c496.76$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No49c490.35$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes66c474.15$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.452,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No62c472.61$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8516456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c454.38$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes35c388.83$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes17c363.5$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.615228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33b6…597bbacked No14c344.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x740e…93a9backed Yes29c343.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.363748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes45c341.35$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes57c325.39$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.416737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes24c324.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.287225%18 W · 54 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x060c…48f4backed Yes29c319.96$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.271533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes30c314.15$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1722023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1211533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed Yes42c288.54$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.541844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes29c287.45$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.751,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c267.64$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c266.3$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes25c249.64$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5365627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c7…db97backed Yes37c228.19$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.851540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No69c228$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.525175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No10c223.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4310060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes31c216.72$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.276033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c216.06$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.195,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c213.21$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes22c196.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.761,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes31c195.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.234332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes26c195$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8816532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaeb…a226backed Yes36c193.56$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes65c192.66$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.812,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes11c182.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6960519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No55c168.45$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.383647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes28c150$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10815626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x455f…b56bbacked Yes35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No72c147.4$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.132,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No74c140.21$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes33c139.1$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.821,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No33c138.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.887,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No14c137.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206464.1%41 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes27c136.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.051,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes30c131.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes25c129.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6629137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes30c126.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.262157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa00…fd56backed Yes22c126$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes31c125.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7436930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbedc…aa38backed Yes21c124$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes24c115.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.442,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c114.41$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.773,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c109.08$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.641,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c108.82$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.313,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b7…9f11backed No76c106.14$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.133828.9%11 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc2eb…c8aebacked Yes24c106$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+175.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd82b…c85dbacked Yes23c103$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+181.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes38c100.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.265141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8732044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.985453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6116336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.37521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes14c99.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.574520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No74c99.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes16c99.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9926827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes28c99.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.011546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes22c98.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5122236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes34c98.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.771,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No64c93.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked No68c92.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.191957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f14…5f73backed No72c89.33$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.321163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick74cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes23c87.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a2…27a0backed No71c87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0b…2361backed Yes19c87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c84.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.837,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No56c84.34$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3857232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xd3a8…ae46backed Yes30c84.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd263…0cc3backed Yes36c82.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.222045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes38c79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes29c76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.968636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes33c74.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8920027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9755942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c7…d4cdbacked Yes24c67.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.941464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.672133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No71c65.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.841,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.218842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6538…e311backed No78c59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No34c58.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.732133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No68c58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7114071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.