Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3cba3b1c0f59819066f5449804aeb88bb14fa6db8dfc7d4e585d8d28023c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,719 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,703$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,807$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…0bccbacked Yes | 34c | 2,632$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 2c | 2,362$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 19c | 2,044$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.73 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,458$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.38 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 3c | 1,336$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,334$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…ef38backed No | 66c | 1,320$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…cd09backed No | 66c | 1,312$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fb…85bcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,157$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,143$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 853.53$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 8c | 747.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 11c | 636.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 576.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 7c | 573.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 15c | 547.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 541.43$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 518.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 14c | 509.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 441.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 6c | 405.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…48f4backed Yes | 17c | 310.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 15c | 273.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 266.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…f68abacked Yes | 4c | 265.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 264.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 263.18$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 256.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 45c | 235.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 30c | 233.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 15c | 229.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 67c | 213.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 14c | 211.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 48c | 207.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 17c | 205.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 33c | 199.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 28c | 195$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 177.2$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…e741backed Yes | 57c | 176.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 15c | 174.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed No | 41c | 173.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 165.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0d…528ebacked Yes | 13c | 162.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed Yes | 15c | 153.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 15c | 149.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 48c | 143.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 132.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 13c | 131.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 123.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 66c | 120.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 47c | 104.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 102.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 21c | 100.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 14c | 100.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 99.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa006…a7dabacked No | 80c | 96.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 13c | 94.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed Yes | 16c | 94.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 22c | 92.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 18c | 91.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 87.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 24c | 84.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 15c | 82.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 15c | 81.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 18c | 79.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 28c | 72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 28c | 71.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 18c | 68.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…da74backed Yes | 16c | 65.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 78c | 64.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…b118backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 31c | 62.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 51.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 64c | 50.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.