Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x529c39431ad1a45d975e275bc72964056bf12846ceeea2d9499c04a73779644a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,624 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa3…ac71backed Yes | 61c | 1,750$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…ca1bbacked No | 39c | 1,750$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked No | 6c | 598.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 486.02$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 459.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 19c | 401.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 328$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…a4f2backed Yes | 58c | 302.81$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 298.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 50c | 285.87$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 43c | 265.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.63 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 253.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 248.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 52c | 201.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 37c | 201.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 77c | 200.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 75c | 194.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 53c | 190.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 20c | 172.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 53c | 154.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 65c | 152.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 33c | 142.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 49c | 138.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 138.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 17c | 137.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 58c | 135$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…bc5cbacked Yes | 52c | 131.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…2625backed Yes | 68c | 121.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 114.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 58c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…ee55backed Yes | 50c | 101.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…3d4cbacked Yes | 61c | 100.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 99.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 56c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 48c | 84.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 60c | 83.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 17c | 80.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 76c | 78.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Yes | 46c | 77.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 77.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 67c | 76.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 57c | 71.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 66.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 61c | 65.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 49c | 61.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 67c | 59.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 54c | 55.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 47c | 55.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3619…4b14backed Yes | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…9ec3backed No | 59c | 53.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…fec8backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked No | 48c | 44.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 41c | 43.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 35c | 41.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…eeefbacked No | 55c | 38.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 38.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked Yes | 47c | 37.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Yes | 41c | 35.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 35.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…b6a9backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bb…7f36backed Yes | 43c | 34.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c91…81f0backed Yes | 50c | 34.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…3644backed Yes | 60c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 32.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 32.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 31.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…f775backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 29.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 59c | 29.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 37c | 29.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 45c | 27.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…c210backed Yes | 75c | 25.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 25.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 41c | 25.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b9b3backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…d57fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…d15cbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 51c | 22.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 21.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…5a12backed Yes | 71c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…a955backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…56dabacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.